Modern Monday - The Ministry For The Future: A Review

Pick up any novel by Kim Stanley Robinson, and you will find a course on climate science cleverly disguised as a novel. Such continues to be the case with Robinson's latest masterpiece, The Ministry For The Future.

The plot revolves around a new Paris Climate Accord which creates the Ministry for the Future - a bureaucratic arm of the U.N. - in the year 2025. Naturally, co-signing nations give it lip service and very little actual action. But a massive heat-wave which strikes India causes that nation to take matters into its own hands. India begins to engage in massive efforts to cool the planet - without waiting for international sanction first. To India's mind, it was the United States and China which caused the heat wave due to their liberal use of fossil fuels in the preceding decades. They therefore have no right to block India's efforts now.

In another aftermath of the regional India heat-wave, in one populous city, millions died. All except for one young American man, an athlete named Frank May, whose peak metabolism allowed him to survive the intense heat and lack of water which killed everyone else in the region affected. Riddled with survivor's guilt, and absolutely convinced that drastic measures must be taken in order to save the human race, he accosts Mary Murphy, the Irish leader of the Ministry for the Future, and tells her by threat that her administration needs to play dirty in order to fight the climate criminals of the world. He escapes before police can capture him, but he succeeds in convincing her that there is a need for a special "black ops" division in the Ministry. Much to her surprise and shock, she learns that there is, in fact, such a division in the very Ministry that she purportedly leads.

The depiction of eco-terrorism in the novel is unique, and more than a little interesting. It falls just short of condoning such behavior, but it is rather blunt in pointing out how effectively it works. The Children of Khali is one such terrorist group, and it strikes fear into the corporate world. A few carefully sabotaged container ships leads to an entire shift in shipping technology towards solar-powered ships, which go much slower, but can be operated automatically, thus saving costs despite the longer transit times. Or then there was a bombed airliner which effectively brought down the entire airline industry. The primary problem for the Children of Khali was that they didn't quite know when to stop once they started becoming successful.

Ultimately, what really works at reversing climate change is not terrorism, but rather gestalt-type-approaches, most of them economics-based, focusing on creating incentives aimed at making the wealthy get on board with carbon sequestration. One of these is the "carbon coin," given to any entity in exchange for one metric ton of carbon sequestered. Many governments and corporations turn to this new currency as a means of recouping their lost wealth, or even gaining new wealth. Post-Saudi Arabia abandons oil and subsists almost entirely on this new currency.

Inter-spaced among the plot-driven chapters are lecture-themed chapters. Occasionally, two individuals discuss the issues academically, one scholastically and the other pessimistically. There are also cutesy chapters told from the perspective of some aspect of the science behind the climate, like a photon or a carbon atom.

There are also deep-dive chapters which explore the intricate economics behind certain actions - things meant to force the wealthy into doing the right thing as opposed to taking the money and running, leaving the entire planet in the lurch. These explorations into economics are somewhat new for Robinson, as he never really needed them in his other novels, such as Green Mars or Blue Mars. But in depicting a planet Earth that succeeds in its challenge against climate change, they are absolutely essential. Science may rule his novels about terraforming other planets, but on Earth, money reigns supreme. Robinson understands this, and so the Ministry for the Future tries desperately to structure economic incentives to benefit everyone on the planet rather than an elite few.

There are some interesting slide plots. For example, researchers in Antarctica dream up the solution of pumping out the water beneath glacial ice and bringing it back to the surface where it will again freeze. The idea is not to cure Antarctic ice melt, but rather slow it down just long enough for other measures to save the climate. The project is plagued by technical problems and unforeseen setbacks, but eventually succeeds, and the Antarctic ice is saved.

Another side plot involves the role of Russia. As one of the few nations remaining which was willing to trade in oil, it encouraged other nations to give up on fossil fuels so that they might corner the market. This meant that Russian oil kept the fossil fuel industry going longer than intended, almost on its own. At least, for a while.

Frank May's sub-plot is interesting. Before he accosts Mary Murphy, he confronts a bourgeois elitist on an Italian beach. An altercation breaks out, and Frank hits the man squarely in the nose, killing him instantly. Frank runs away and does not realize he has committed murder until much later. Then, after confronting Mary Murphy in Switzerland, he goes into hiding. Using multiple stolen identities, he tries to help by volunteering at local refugee camps. Eventually he is caught, and Mary is informed. Yet oddly, Mary finds herself feeling sorry for the man. She occasionally visits him in jail. She keeps in touch after he was let out. Eventually, she even stays by his side as he lies dying of cancer - something even his ex-wife and daughter fail to do.

Ultimately, the entire book is left-wing wish fulfillment, disseminated in a manor which, clearly, Robinson hopes will lead to some actual real-world results. Perhaps it even will, as it goes into fine detail regarding complex topics and makes them accessible to the average reader. Classic Kim Stanley Robinson material. This is the sort of novel which has the potential to affect much more than the Hugo Awards.

I hope it does.

Eric

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